Can a former incumbent unseat a sitting MP in this marginal SA seat?

In an election where every seat will count, South Australia has two that could help the major parties win or lose government.

Boothby, in Adelaide’s south, is one of those.

Boothby has long been a marginal seat — it has affluent, largely Liberal voters along the coast and in the foothills, with a mortgage-belt strip of more Labor-inclined voters through the middle.

Despite its marginal footing, Boothby was held by the Liberal Party for decades.

That changed in 2022, when Labor took office and the party’s candidate, Louise Miller-Frost took the seat.

A variable at the time was the fact that Liberal incumbent Nicolle Flint was not contesting the seat, having made the decision to leave politics.

Now she’s back and running again.

But why the return to politics? And can Ms Flint win on May 3?

Why did she leave?

On the day she announced she would retire from politics, Ms Flint didn’t give a reason for her decision.

Nor did she mention in her written statement at the time that she was suffering from endometriosis.

But more recently she has spoken publicly, saying it was a major factor in her departure.

“I’ve had two very major surgeries for it, which made no difference to my pain or any of my symptoms,” she said.

“All of the medication they put me on, I had a pretty severe reaction to until December 2023 and it was the last medication that I could try, and it worked.

Ms Flint is now in medical menopause, and said it was the reason she could return to politics.

“I would never have retired if I felt like I do now,” she said.

Departure followed offensive vandalism

Throughout her time in politics, Ms Flint raised concerns she was the target of sexist harassment and bullying.

Her office was defaced with offensive graffiti, and police formally cautioned a man accused of stalking the MP during her 2019 election campaign.

That same campaign was also targeted by lobby group GetUp, whose action was characterised by Ms Flint as harassment — something the organisation denied.

When she resigned, senior Liberals including then prime minister Scott Morrison made statements referencing “bullying and nastiness”, opening up speculation that was the reason for her departure.

And in her valedictory speech to parliament, Ms Flint urged parliament to better protect women, calling out the abuse she’d received.

As she campaigns to return to Canberra, Ms Flint is hopeful there has been some improvement.

“The Kate Jenkins report, which was excellent, has been implemented,” she said.

“Obviously I haven’t been working in the building since those changes have been implemented.”

But she admits there’s more all political parties can do to make things better for women.

What would she do in this space? 

Ms Flint said the biggest area of harassment for her was on social media, and it’s an area in which she’d push for reform, if elected.

She uses the example of ABC presenter and journalist Lisa Millar leaving social media after a constant barrage of criticism and abuse.

“When people like Lisa Millar delete their online accounts, we lose their voice from the public realm on a platform that is actually essential for women to do their jobs,” she said.

“Secondly, young women lose crucial role models.”

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Ms Flint said she would push for more accountability online, particularly when there are threats, harassment or vilification which are in breach of the law.

“I will be driving that within the Liberal Party and the coalition if I’m re-elected.”

What does she think about the SA Liberals? 

Nicolle Flint is vying for a seat in Canberra, but at a state level, her party has had a disastrous 12 months.

The SA Liberals lost a by-election in Dunstan following former premier Steven Marshall’s resignation, they lost former leader David Speirs, who has since pleaded guilty to drugs charges, and they then lost the by-election in his seat of Black.

There is some overlap in the electorates of Boothby and Black, but Ms Flint said she doesn’t believe the state party’s fortunes will dampen hers.

“I think we’re we’re all disappointed with some of the challenges the state team have had recently,” she said.

“But honestly, people are raising cost of living with me … they’re raising local issues that are hurting their health and hurting their quality of life.”

Liberal leader a help or hindrance in Boothby?

Nicolle Flint is aligned with the conservative faction of the Liberal Party, alongside SA colleagues Alex Antic and Tony Pasin.

The faction has been ascendant since the so-called “Pentecostal recruitment drive” in 2021, a membership drive Ms Flint defended at the time.

Given Ms Flint has held the seat before, it could be fairly argued Boothby isn’t adverse to an MP from the Liberal’s right.

But another conservative member of Parliament hasn’t featured strongly on Ms Flint’s campaign materials — Peter Dutton.

While the Liberal leader’s popularity has been dipping in the polls, Ms Flint has denied he’s a hindrance to her campaign.

“Peter Dutton has been to visit me four times in the seat of Boothby,” she said.

“He will be back again, I hope, because I love having him to visit.”

Ms Flint wouldn’t be drawn on whether policies like nuclear power would play well with Boothby voters, instead highlighting that renewable energy and gas would still be part of Australia’s energy mix.

“So that’s why you saw in Peter Dutton’s budget in reply speech last week, that gas is one of the things that we will be working on.”

How much will Boothby matter on election night?

The latest polls show a tight race to what could be a minority government, so while the focus might be on contests in the eastern states, seats like Boothby could still make a big difference.

Ms Flint said it’s no more pressure than what she’s used to.

“Boothby has always been a marginal seat since I was first the candidate in 2015 — it was a marginal seat under Andrew Southcott before me,” she said.

“So very much a known quantity.”

The ABC will interview Ms Flint’s Labor opponent, Boothby MP Louise Miller-Frost, in a special election Stateline interview next week.

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